Adam Phillips

2023-2024

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, D. J. Amaya, A. Capotondi, M. G. Jacox and J. D. Scott, 2024: Future changes in the intensity and duration of marine heat and cold waves: Insights from coupled model initial-condition large ensembles. J. Climate, 37, 1877-1902, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0278.1.
[Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Fasullo, J. T., J. M. Caron, A. S. Phillips, H. Li, J. H. Richter, R. B. Neale, N. Rosenbloom, G. Strand, S. Glanville, Y. Li, F. Lehner, G. Meehl, J. -C. Golaz, P. Ullrich, J. Lee and J. Arblaster, 2023: Modes of Variability 1 in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles. J. Climate, 37, 2629–2653, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0454.1. [Article]

Alexander, M. A., J. D. Scott, M. G. Jacox, C. Deser, D. J. Amaya, A. Capotondi and A. S. Phillips, 2023: A survey of coastal conditions around the Continental US using a high-resolution ocean reanalysis. Prog. Oceanogr., 216, 2023, 103055, doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103055. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Karmouche, S., E. Galytska, J. Runge, G. A. Meehl, A. S. Phillips, K. Weigel, and V. Eyring, 2023: Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic-Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6, EGUsphere, 14, 309–344, doi:10.5194/esd-14-309-2023. [Article]

Deser, C. and A. S. Phillips, 2023: A range of outcomes: The combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 63–84, doi: 10.5194/npg-30-63-2023. [Article]

Deser, C. and A. S. Phillips, 2023: Spurious Indo-Pacific connections to internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability introduced by the global temperature residual method. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL100574, doi: 10.1029/2022GL100574. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

2020-2022

Amaya, D. J., M. G. Jacox, M. A. Alexander, J. D. Scott, C. Deser, A. Capotondi and A. S. Phillips, 2022: Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America. Nat. Comm., accepted. [Article (revised)] [Supplemental Materials (revised)]

McGregor, S., C. Cassou, Y. Kosaka and A. S. Phillips, 2021: Projected ENSO teleconnection changes in CMIP6. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2021GL097511.
[Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Eyring, V., N.P. Gillett, K.M. Achuta Rao, R. Barimalala, M. Barreiro Parrillo, N. Bellouin, C. Cassou, P.J. Durack, Y. Kosaka, S. McGregor, S. Min, O. Morgenstern, and Y. Sun, 2021: Human Influence on the Climate System. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
[IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 3]

Eyring, V., N.P. Gillett, K.M. Achuta Rao, R. Barimalala, M. Barreiro Parrillo, N. Bellouin, C. Cassou, P.J. Durack, Y. Kosaka, S. McGregor, S. Min, O. Morgenstern, and Y. Sun: 2021, Human Influence on the Climate System Supplementary Material. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)].
[IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 3 Supplementary Material]

IPCC, 2021: Annex IV: Modes of Variability [Cassou, C., A. Cherchi, Y. Kosaka (eds.)]. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
[IPCC AR6 WG1 Annex IV]

Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, L. Goldfarb, I. Gorodetskaya, J.M. Gutierrez, R. Hamdi, E. Hawkins, H.T. Hewitt, P. Hope, A.S. Islam, C. Jones, D.S. Kaufman, R.E. Kopp, Y. Kosaka, J. Kossin, S. Krakovska, J.-Y. Lee, J. Li, T. Mauritsen, T.K. Maycock, M. Meinshausen, S.-K. Min, P.M.S. Monteiro, T. Ngo-Duc, F. Otto, I. Pinto, A. Pirani, K. Raghavan, R. Ranasinghe, A.C. Ruane, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, B.H. Samset, S. Sathyendranath, S.I. Seneviratne, A.A. Sörensson, S. Szopa, I. Takayabu, A.-M. Tréguier, B. van den Hurk, R. Vautard, K. von Schuckmann, S. Zaehle, X. Zhang, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
[IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary]

Deser, C. and A. S. Phillips, 2021: Defining the internal component of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095023, doi: 10.1029/2021GL095023. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Phillips, A. S., C. Deser, J Fasullo, D. P. Schneider and I. R. Simpson, 2020: Assessing Climate Variability and Change in Model Large Ensembles: A User’s Guide to the “Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for Large Ensembles”, doi:10.5065/h7c7-f961. [Article]

Capotondi, A., C. Deser, A. S. Phillips, Y. Okumura and S. M. Larson, 2020: ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Earth System Model Version 2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002022, doi: 10.1029/2019MS002022. [Article]

Fasullo, J., A. S. Phillips and C. Deser, 2020: Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives. J. Climate, 33, 5527–5545, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1024.1. [Article]

Lynn, B. H., S. Cohen, L. Druyan, M. Haley, A. Phillips, C. Krugliach, D. Shea and A. Khain, 2020: An Examination of the Impact of Grid Spacing on WRF Simulations of Wintertime Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic United States. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 2317-2343, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-19-0154.1.
[Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, I. R. Simpson, N. Rosenbloom, D. Coleman, F. Lehner, A. Pendergrass, P. DiNezio and S. Stevenson, 2020: Isolating the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: A New CESM1 Large Ensemble Community Resource. J. Climate, 33, 7835-7858, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0123.1.
[Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Eyring, V., L. Bock, A. Lauer, M. Righi, M. Schlund, B. Andela, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, B. Brötz, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, B. Crezee, E. Davin, P. Davini, K. Debeire, L. de Mora, C. Deser, D. Docquier, P. Earnshaw, C. Ehbrecht, B. K. Gier, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, S. Hardiman, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, N. V. Koldunov, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, B. Müller, A. Pandde, N. Pérez-Zanón, A. Phillips, V. Predoi, J. Russell, A. Sellar, F. Serva, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, J. Vegas-Regidor, J. von Hardenberg, K. Weigel, and K. Zimmermann, 2020: ESMValTool v2.0 – Extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 13, 3383–3438, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020. [Article]

Danabasoglu, G., J. -F. Lamarque, J. Bacmeister, D. A. Bailey, A. K. DuVivier, J. Edwards, L. K. Emmons, J. Fasullo, R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, C. Hannay, M. M. Holland, W. G. Large, D. M. Lawrence, J. T. M. Lenaerts, K. Lindsay, W. H. Lipscomb, M. J. Mills, R. Neale, K. W. Oleson, B. Otto-Bliesner, A. S. Phillips, W. Sacks, S. Tilmes, L. van Kampenhout, M. Vertenstein, A. Bertini, J. Dennis, C. Deser, C. Fischer, B. Fox-Kemper, J. E. Kay, D. Kinnison, P. J. Kushner, M. C. Long, S. Mickelson, J. K. Moore, E. Nienhouse, L. Polvani, P. J. Rasch and W. G. Strand, 2020: The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, doi: 10.1029/2019MS001916. [Article]

2017-2019

Gettelman, A., M. J. Mills, D. E. Kinnison, R. R. Garcia, A. K. Smith, D. R. Marsh, S. Tilmes, F. Vitt, C. G. Bardeen, J. McInerny, H. -L. Liu, S. C. Solomon, L. M. Polvani, L. K. Emmons, J. -F. Lamarque, J. H. Richter, A. S. Glanville, J. T. Bacmeister, A. S. Phillips, R. B. Neale, I. R. Simpson, A. K. DuVivier, A. Hodzic and W. J. Randel, 2019: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6). J. Geophys. Res., 124, 12380-12403, doi: 10.1029/2019JD030943. [Article]

Tilmes, S., J. H. Richter, B. Kravitz, D. M. Martin, M. J. Mills, I. Simpson, A. S. Glanville, J. T. Fasullo, A. S. Phillips, J. -F. Lamarque, J. Tribbia, J. Edwards, S. Mickelson and S. Gosh, 2018: CESM1(WACCM) Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) Project. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 99, 2361-2371, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0267.1. [Article]

Hurrell, J. W., C. Deser and A. S. Phillips, 2018: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences (3rd edition), doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.11621-5. [Article]

Deser, C., I. R. Simpson, A. S. Phillips and K. A. McKinnon, 2018: How well do we know ENSO's climate impacts over North America, and how do we evaluate models accordingly? J. Climate, 30, 4991-5014, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0783.1.
[Article] [Supplemental Material]

Deser, C., J. W. Hurrell and A. S. Phillips, 2017: The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European Climate Projections. Clim. Dyn., 49, 3141–3157, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C. and A. Phillips, 2017: An overview of decadal-scale sea surface temperature variability in the observational record. Joint Issue of CLIVAR Exchanges and PAGES Magazine, doi: 10.22498/pages.25.1.2. [Article]

Deser, C., I. R. Simpson, K. A. McKinnon and A. S. Phillips, 2017: The Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: How well do we know it and how do we evaluate models accordingly? J. Climate, 30, 5059-5082, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1. [Article] [Corrigendum]

Gamelon, M., V. Grøtan, A. L. K. Nilsson, S. Engen, J. W. Hurrell, K. Jerstad, A. S. Phillips, O. W. Røstad, T. Slagsvold, B. Walseng, N. C. Stenseth, and B.-E. Saether, 2017: Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics. Sci. Adv., 3, e1602298 (2017). [Article]

2014-2016

Eyring, V., M. Righi, A. Lauer, M. Evaldsson, S. Wenzel, C. Jones, A. Anav, O. Andrews, I. Cionni, E. L. Davin, C. Deser, C. Ehbrecht, P. Friedlingstein, P. Gleckler, K.-D. Gottschaldt, S. Hagemann, M. Juckes, S. Kindermann, J. Krasting, D. Kunert, R. Levine, A. Loew, J. Mäkelä, G. Martin, E. Mason, A. S. Phillips, S. Read, C. Rio, R. Roehrig, D. Senftleben, A. Sterl, L. H. van Ulft, J. Walton, S. Wang and K. D. Williams, 2016: ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747-1802, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016. [Article] [Discussion]

Deser, C., L. Terray and A. S. Phillips, 2016: Forced and internal components of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50 years: Mechanisms and implications. J. Climate, 29, 2237-2258, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0304.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Newman, M., M. A. Alexander, T. R. Ault, K. M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N. J. Mantua, A. J. Miller, S. Minobe, H. Nakamura, N. Schneider, D. J. Vimont, A. S. Phillips, J. D. Scott, and C. A. Smith, 2016: The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisted. J. Climate, J. Climate, 29, 4399-4427, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1. [Article]

Kay, J. E., C. Deser, A. Phillips, A. Mai, C. Hannay, G. Strand, J. Arblaster, S. Bates, G. Danabasoglu, J. Edwards, M. Holland, P. Kushner, J. -F. Lamarque, D. Lawrence, K. Lindsay, A. Middleton, E. Munoz, R. Neale, K. Oleson, L. Polvani, and M. Vertenstein, 2015: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 96, 1333–1349, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1. [Article]

Thompson, D. W. J., E. A. Barnes, C. Deser, W. E. Foust, and A. S. Phillips, 2015: Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends. J. Climate, 28, 6443-6456, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1. [Article]

Phillips, A. S., C. Deser, and J. Fasullo, 2014: A new tool for evaluating modes of variability in climate models. EOS, 95, 453-455, doi: 10.1002/2014EO490002. [Article]

Trenberth, K. E., J. T. Fasullo, G. Branstator and A. S. Phillips, 2014: Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 911–916, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2341. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, and B. V. Smoliak, 2014: Projecting North American Climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 27, 2271-2296, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1.
[Article] [Supplementary Material]

2011-2013

Wallace, J.M., C.Deser, B.V. Smoliak, and A.S. Phillips, 2013: Attribution of climate change in the presence of internal variability, In Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond (Eds: C.P. Chang, M. Ghil, M. Latif, and J. M. Wallace). World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, 6, 1-29, doi:10.1142/9789814579933_0001. [Chapter]

Deser, C., R. Knutti, S. Solomon, and A. S. Phillips, 2012: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 775-779, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1562. [Article]

Ghatak, D., C. Deser, A. Frei, G. Gong, A. Phillips, D. Robinson, and J. Stroeve, 2012: Simulated Eurasian Snow Cover Response to Observed Arctic Sea Ice Loss, 1979-2009. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D23108, doi:10.1029/2012JD018047. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, R. A. Tomas, Y. Okumura, M. A. Alexander, A. Capotondi, J. D. Scott, Y. -O. Kwon, and M. Ohba, 2012: ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in Community Climate System Model Version 4. J. Climate, 25, 2622-2651, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1 [Article]

Danabasoglu, G., S. G. Yeager, Y. -O. Kwon, J. J. Tribbia, A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2012. Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 5153-5172, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00463.1. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2012: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Clim. Dyn., 38, 527-546, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x. [Article]

2008-2010

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and M. A. Alexander, 2010: Twentieth Century Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Trends Revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043321.
[Article] [Supplemental Material]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, S. -P. Xie, and A. S. Phillips, 2010: Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2010.2, 115-143, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453. [Article]

Schubert, S., D. Gutzler, H. Wang, A. Dai, T. Delworth, C. Deser, K. Findell, R. Fu, W. Higgins, M. Hoerling, B. Kirtman, R. Koster, A. Kumar, D. Legler, D. Lettenmaier, B. Lyon, V. Magana, K. Mo, S. Nigam, P. Pegion, A. Phillips, R. Pulwarty, D. Rind, A. Ruiz-Barradas, J. Schemm, R. Seager, R. Stewart, M. Suarez, J. Syktus, M. Ting, C. Wang, S. Weaver, N. Zeng, 2009: A USCLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results.J. Climate, 22, 5251-5272, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1 [Article]

Deser, C., and A.S. Phillips, 2009: Atmospheric Circulation Trends, 1950-2000: The Relative Roles of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing and Direct Atmospheric Radiative Forcing. J. Climate, 22, 396-413, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2453.1. [Article]

2005-2007

Jochum, M., C. Deser, and A. Phillips, 2007: Tropical atmospheric variability forced by oceanic internal variability. J. Climate, 20, 765-771. [Print Version]

Hoerling, M.P., J.W. Hurrell, J. Eischeid, and A.S. Phillips, 2006: Detection and Attribution of 20th Century Northern and Southern African Monsoon Change. J. Climate, 19, 3989-4008. [Print Version]

Deser, C., and A. S. Phillips, 2006: Simulation of the 1976/1977 climate transition over the North Pacific: Sensitivity to tropical forcing. J. Climate, 19, 6170-6180. [Print Version]

Deser, C., A. Capotondi, R. Saravanan, and A. S. Phillips, 2006: Tropical Pacific and Atlantic climate variability in CCSM3. J. Climate, 19, 2451-2481. [Print Version] [Supplementary Figures]

Hurrell, J. W., J. J. Hack, A. S. Phillips, J. Caron, and J. Yin, 2006: The dynamical simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3). J. Climate, 19, 2162-2183. [Print Version]

Cassou, C., L. Terray, and A. S. Phillips, 2005: Tropical atlantic influence on European heat waves J. Climate, 18, 2805-2811. [Print Version]

2001-2004

Hurrell, J. W., M. P. Hoerling, A. S. Phillips, and T. Xu, 2004: Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part I: Assessing determinism. Climate Dyn., 23, 371-389. [Print Version]

Hoerling, M. P., J. W. Hurrell, T. Xu, G. T. Bates, and A. S. Phillips, 2004: Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Climate Dyn., 23, 391-405. [Print Version]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17, 3109-3124. [Print Version] [Supplementary Figures (.html, added 2/12/04)]

Deser, C., G. Magnusdottir, R. Saravanan, and A. Phillips, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea-ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3, Part II: Direct and indirect components of the response. J. Climate, 17, 877-889. [Print Version]

Walsh, J. E., A. S. Phillips, D. H. Portis, W. L. Chapman, 2001: Extreme cold outbreaks in the United States and Europe, 1948-99. J. Climate, 14, 2642-2658. [Print Version]