Clara Deser

2025

Hall, R. J., A. Czaja, G. Danabasoglu, C. Deser, C. Frankignoul and Y. -O. Kwon, 2025: A New Robust Frontal Disturbance Index of the Oyashio Extension Sea Surface Temperature Front. J. Climate, 38, 293-307, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0642.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

2024

Maher, N., A. S. Phillips, C. Deser, R. C.-J. Wills, F. Lehner, J. Fasullo, J. M. Caron, L. Brunner and U. Beyerle, 2024: The updated Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive and the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package: New tools for the study of climate variability and change. Geosci. Model Dev., submitted. [Article (EGUsphere preprint)] [Supplementary Material]

Jenkins, M. T., A. Dai and C. Deser, 2024: Arctic climate feedback response to local sea-ice concentration and remote sea surface temperature changes in PAMIP simulations. Clim. Dyn., 62, 10599–10620, doi: 10.1007/s00382-024-07465-y. [Article]

Bonan, G. B, C. Deser, W. R. Wieder, D. L. Lombardozzi and F. Lehner, 2024: When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., in press. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

Deser, C., W. M. Kim, R. C. J. Wills, I. R. Simpson, S. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, K. Rodgers and N. Rosenbloom, 2024: Effects of macro vs. micro initialization and ocean initial-condition memory on the evolution of ensemble spread in the CESM2 Large Ensemble. Clim. Dyn., in press. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Wu, X., S. G. Yeager, C. Deser, A. Capotondi, A. T. Wittenberg and M. J. McPhaden, 2024: Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability is dominated by oceanic Rossby waves. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 292 (2024), doi: 10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7.
[Article] [Supplementary Information]

Amaya, D. J., N. Maher, C. Deser, M. G. Jacox, M. A. Alexander, M. Newman, J. Dias and J. Lou, 2024: Linking projected changes in seasonal climate predictability and ENSO amplitude. J. Climate, in press. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Dong, Y., J. E. Kay, C. Deser, A. Capotondi and S. C. Sanchez, 2024: Distilling the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases to large-scale low-frequency surface ocean changes over the past century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL112020, 10.1029/2024GL112020. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Peng, Q., S. -P. Xie, G. Passalacqua, A. Miyamoto and C. Deser, 2024: The 2023 coastal El Niño: Atmospheric and air-sea coupling mechanisms. Sci. Adv., 10, eadk8646 (2024), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adk8646. [Article] [Supplementary Materials]

Zhang, X. and C. Deser, 2024: Tropical and Antarctic sea ice impacts of observed Southern Ocean warming and cooling trends since 1949. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 197 (2024), doi: 10.1038/s41612-024-00735-w. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

Capotondi, A., R. R. Rodrigues, A. S. Gupta, J. A. Benthuysen, C. Deser, T. L. Frölicher, N. S. Lovenduski, D. J. Amaya, N. L. Grix, T. Xu, J. Hermes, N. J. Holbrook, R. M. Koll, C. Martinez-Villalobos, S. Masina, A. Schaeffer, R. W. Schlegel, K. E. Smith and C. Wang, 2024: A Global Overview of Marine Heatwaves in a Changing Climate. Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 701 (2024), doi: 10.1038/s43247-024-01806-9. [Article]

Peng, Q., S. -P. Xie and C. Deser, 2024: Collapsed upwelling weakens ENSO under sustained warming beyond the 21st century. Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 815–822 (2024), doi: 10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

Gervais, M. L. Sun and C. Deser, 2024: Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America. J. Climate, 37, 1065–1085, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0389.1. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Lenssen, N., P. DiNezio, L. Goddard, C. Deser, Y. Kushmir, S. J. Mason, M. Newman and Y. Okumura, 2024: Strong El Nino events lead to robust multi-year ENSO predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2023GL106988, doi: 10.1029/2023GL106988. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, D. J. Amaya, A. Capotondi, M. G. Jacox and J. D. Scott, 2024: Future changes in the intensity and duration of marine heat and cold waves: Insights from coupled model initial-condition large ensembles. J. Climate, 37, 1877-1902, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0278.1.
[Article] [Supplemental Material]

Hwang, Y. T., S. -P. Xie, P. -J. Chen, H. -Y. Tseng and C. Deser, 2024: Contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to persistent La Niña-like conditions in the early 21st century. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 121, (5), doi: 10.1073/pnas.2315124121.
[Article] [Supplementary Information]

2023

Simpson, I. R., N. Rosenbloom, G. Danabasoglu, C. Deser, S. G. Yeager, C. S. McCluskey, R. Yamaguchi, J. -F. Lamarque, S. Tilmes, M. J. Mills and K. B. Rodgers, 2023: The CESM2 Single Forcing Large Ensemble and comparison to CESM1: Implications for experimental design. J. Climate, 36, 5687–5711, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0666.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Tian, Y., S. Hu and C. Deser, 2023: Critical role of biomass burning aerosols in enhanced historical Indian Ocean warming. Nat. Comm., 14, 3508 (2023), doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39204-y. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

Yamaguchi, R., J. -E. Kim, K. B. Rodgers, K. Stein, A. Timmermann, S. -S. Lee, L. Huang, M. F. Stuecker, J. T. Fasullo, G. Danabasoglu, C. Deser, J. -F. Lamarque, N. A. Rosenbloom and J. Edwards, 2023: Persistent ocean anomalies as a response to northern hemisphere heating induced by biomass burning variability. J. Climate, 36, 8225–8241, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0090.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Jenkins, M. T., A. Dai and C. Deser, 2023: Seasonal variations and spatial patterns of Arctic cloud changes in association with sea-ice loss during 1950-2019 in ERA5. J. Climate, 37, 735–754, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0117.1. [Article]

Liang, Y. -C., Y. -O. Kwon, C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau, K. L. Smith, L. M. Polvani, L. Sun, Y. Peings, C. Deser, R. Zhang and J. Screen, 2023: The Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Subsequent Surface Impacts as Consequences to Arctic Sea-ice Loss. J. Climate, 309-333, 37, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0128.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Schneider, T., S. Behera, G. Boccaletti, C. Deser, K. Emanuel, R. Ferrari, L. R. Leung, N. Lin, T. Muller, A. Navarra, O. Ndiaye, A. Stuart, J. Tribbia, and T. Yamagata, 2023: Harnessing AI and computing to advance climate modeling and prediction. Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 887-889, doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01769-3. [SharedIt Link]

Kang, S. M., Y. Yu, C. Deser, X. Zhang, I. -S. Kang, S. -S. Lee, K. B. Rodgers and P. Ceppi, 2023: Global impacts of recent Southern Ocean cooling. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 120 (30), doi: 10.1073/pnas.2300881120.
[Article] [Supplementary Information]

Jain, S., A. A. Scaife, T. G. Shepherd, C. Deser, N. Dunstone, G. A. Schmidt, K. E. Trenberth and T. Turkington, 2023: Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6, 68 (2023), doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00389-0. [Article]

Alexander, M. A., J. D. Scott, M. G. Jacox, C. Deser, D. J. Amaya, A. Capotondi and A. S. Phillips, 2023: A survey of coastal conditions around the Continental US using a high-resolution ocean reanalysis. Prog. Oceanogr., 216, 2023, 103055, doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103055. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Lehner, F. and C. Deser, 2023: Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability. Environ. Res. Clim., 2, 023001, doi: 10.1088/2752-5295/accf30. [Article]

Wu, X., S. G. Yeager, C. Deser, N. Rosenbloom and G. A. Meehl, 2023: Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the Tropical Pacific. Sci. Adv., 9, eadd9364, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add9364. [Article] [Supplementary Materials]

Amaya, D. J., M. G. Jacox, M. A. Alexander, J. D. Scott, C. Deser, A. Capotondi and A. S. Phillips, 2023: Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America. Nat. Comm., 14, 1038, doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36567-0. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Levin, J., S. Pacala, D. Arvizu, C. Deser, J. Dabiri, D. Duffie, K. Emanuel, I. Fung, B. Litterman, T. Schneider, J. Stroebel, K. Sullivan and T. Tao, 2023: President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology Report to the President "Extreme weather risk in a changing climate: Enhancing prediction and protecting communities". Executive Office of the President of the United States. [Report]

Deser, C. and A. S. Phillips, 2023: A range of outcomes: The combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 63–84, doi: 10.5194/npg-30-63-2023. [Article, Selected as a Highlight Paper]

Deser, C. and A. S. Phillips, 2023: Spurious Indo-Pacific connections to internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability introduced by the global temperature residual method. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL100574, doi: 10.1029/2022GL100574. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

O'Brien, J. P. and C. Deser, 2023: Quantifying and understanding forced changes to unforced modes of atmospheric circulation variability over the North Pacific in a coupled model large ensemble. J. Climate, 36, 17-35, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0101.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

2022

Wu, X., Y. M. Okumura, P. N. DiNezio, S. G. Yeager and C. Deser, 2022: The equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CESM1 and its influence on ENSO forecasts. J. Climate, 35, 3261–3277, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0470.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Chen, R., I. R. Simpson, C. Deser, B. Wang and Y. Du, 2022: Mechanisms behind the springtime North Pacific ENSO teleconnection bias in climate models. J. Climate, 35, 7691–7710, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0304.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Kim, J. -E., R. Yamaguchi, K. B. Rodgers, A. Timmermann, S. -S. Lee, K. Stein, G. Danabasoglu, J. -F. Lamarque, J. T. Fasullo, C. Deser, N. Rosenbloom, J. Edwards and M. F. Stuecker, 2022: Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., accepted. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Wang, K., L. Wu, H. Liu, B. Dan, H. Dai and C. Deser, 2022: Contrary responses of the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio to Arctic sea ice loss. Atmos., 13, 514, doi: 10.3390/atmos13040514. [Article] [Supplementary Materials]

Smith, D. M., R. Eade, M. Andrews, H. Ayres, A. Clark, S. Chripko, C. Deser, N. J. Dunstone, J. Garcia-Serrano, G. Gastineau, L. S. Graff, S. C. Hardiman, B. He, L. Hermanson, T. Jung, J. Knight, X. Levine, G. Magnusdottir, E. Manzini, D. Matei, M. Mori, R. Msadek, P. Ortega, Y. Peings, A. A. Scaife1, J. A. Screen, M. Seabrook, T. Semmler, M. Sigmond, J. Streffing, L. Sun, and A. Walsh, 2022: Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss. Nat. Comm., 13:727, doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y. [SharedIt Link]

Hirasawa, H., P. J. Kushner, M. Sigmond, J. Fyfe and C. Deser, 2022: Evolving Sahel rainfall response to anthropogenic aerosols driven by shifting regional oceanic and emission influences. J. Climate, 35, 3181–3193, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0795.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Sun, L., C. Deser, I. Simpson, and M. Sigmond, 2022: Uncertainty in the winter tropospheric response to Arctic Sea ice loss: the role of stratospheric polar vortex internal variability. J. Climate, 35, 3109–3130, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0543.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Hay, S., P. J. Kushner, R. Blackport, K. E. McCusker, T. Oudar, L. Sun, M. England, C. Deser, J. A. Screen and L. M. Polvani, 2022: Separating the influences of low-latitude warming and sea-ice loss on Northern Hemisphere climate change. J. Climate, 35, 2327–2349, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0180.1. [Article]

Fasullo, J. T., J. -F. Lamarque, C. Hannay, N. Rosenbloom, S. Tilmes, P. DeRepentigny, A. Jahn and C. Deser, 2022: Spurious late historical-era warming in CESM2 driven by prescribed biomass burning emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097420, doi: 10.1029/2021GL097420. [Article] [Supporting Information]

2021

Wu, X., Y. M. Okumura, C. Deser and P. N. DiNezio, 2021: Two-year Dynamical Predictions of ENSO Event Duration during 1954-2015. J. Climate, 34, 4069–4087, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0619.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Kay, J. E., P. DeRepentigny, M. M. Holland, D. A. Bailey, A. K. DuVivier, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, C. Deser, A. Jahn, H. Singh, M. M. Smith, M. A. Webster, J. Edwards, S. -S. Lee, K. B. Rodgers and N. Rosenbloom, 2021: Less surface sea ice melt in the CESM2 improves Arctic sea ice simulation with minimal non-polar climate impacts. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., doi: 10.1002/essoar.10507477.2. [Article]

McKinnon, K. A. and C. Deser, 2021: The inherent uncertainty of precipitation variability, trends, and extremes due to internal variability, with implications for Western US water resources. J. Climate, 34, 9605-9622, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0251.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Rodgers, K. B., S. -S. Lee, N. Rosenbloom, A. Timmermann, G. Danabasoglu, C. Deser, J. Edwards, J. -E. Kim, I. Simpson, K. Stein, M. F. Stuecker, R. Yamaguchi, T. Bodai, E. -S. Chung, L. Huang, W. Kim, J. -F. Lamarque, D. Lombardozzi, W. R. Wieder and S. G. Yeager, 2021: Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability. Earth Sys. Dyn., 12, 1393–1411, doi:10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021. [Article] [Supplement]

Deser, C. and A. S. Phillips, 2021: Defining the internal component of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095023, doi: 10.1029/2021GL095023. [Article] [Supplemental Materials]

Oehrlein, J., L. M. Polvani, L. Sun and C. Deser, 2021: How well do we know the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warmings? Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, doi: 10.1029/2021GL095493. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Kang, S. M., S. -P. Xie, C. Deser and B. Xiang, 2021: Zonal mean and shift modes of historical climate response to evolving aerosol distribution. Sci. Bull., 66, 2405-2411, doi:10.1016/j.scib.2021.07.013. [Article] [Supplementary Materials]

Phillips, A. S., C. Deser, J Fasullo, D. P. Schneider and I. R. Simpson, 2020: Assessing Climate Variability and Change in Model Large Ensembles: A User’s Guide to the “Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for Large Ensembles”, doi:10.5065/h7c7-f961. [Article]

Deser, C. and K. Rodgers (guest editors), 2020: New research on climate variability and change using initial-condition Large Ensembles. US CLIVAR Variations, 18.2, 1–44. [Article]

Zhang, X., C. Deser and L. Sun, 2020: Is there a tropical response to recent observed Southern Ocean cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2020GL091235
[Article] [Supporting Information]

Amaya, D. J., M. A. Alexander, A. Capotondi, C. Deser, K. B. Karnauskas, A. J. Miller and N. J. Mantua, 2021: Are long-term changes in mixed layer depth influencing North Pacific marine heatwaves?. [in “Explaining Extremes of 2019 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 102 (1), S59–S66, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0144.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

2020

Chen, R., I. R. Simpson, C. Deser and B. Wang, 2020: Model biases in the simulation of the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection. J. Climate, 33, 9985-10002, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1004.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Capotondi, A., C. Deser, A. S. Phillips, Y. Okumura and S. M. Larson, 2020: ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Earth System Model Version 2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002022, doi:10.1029/2019MS002022. [Article]

Deser, C., 2020: Certain uncertainty: The role of internal climate variability in projections of regional climate change and risk management. Earth's Future, 8, doi:10.1029/2020EF001854. [Article]

Fedorov, A., S. Hu, A. Wittenberg, A. Levine and C. Deser, 2020: ENSO low-frequency modulations and mean state interactions. El Nino Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, M. McPhaden. A. Santoso and W. Cai, Eds., AGU Books, ISBN: 978-1-119-54812-6. [Article]

Fasullo, J., A. S. Phillips and C. Deser, 2020: Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives. J. Climate, 33, 5527–5545, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1024.1. [Article]

Wills, R. C. J., D. S. Battisti, K. C. Armour, T. Schneider, and C. Deser, 2020: Pattern Recognition Methods to Separate Forced Responses from Internal Variability in Climate Model Ensembles and Observations. J. Climate, 33, 8693-8719, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0855.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, I. R. Simpson, N. Rosenbloom, D. Coleman, F. Lehner, A. Pendergrass, P. DiNezio and S. Stevenson, 2020: Isolating the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: A New CESM1 Large Ensemble Community Resource. J. Climate, 33, 7835-7858, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0123.1.
[Article] [Supplemental Material]

Eyring, V., L. Bock, A. Lauer, M. Righi, M. Schlund, B. Andela, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, B. Brötz, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, B. Crezee, E. Davin, P. Davini, K. Debeire, L. de Mora, C. Deser, D. Docquier, P. Earnshaw, C. Ehbrecht, B. K. Gier, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, S. Hardiman, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, N. V. Koldunov, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, B. Müller, A. Pandde, N. Pérez-Zanón, A. Phillips, V. Predoi, J. Russell, A. Sellar, F. Serva, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, J. Vegas-Regidor, J. von Hardenberg, K. Weigel, and K. Zimmermann, 2020: ESMValTool v2.0 – Extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 13, 3383–3438, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020. [Article]

Lehner, F., C. Deser, N. Maher, J. Marotzke, E. Fischer, L. Brunner, R. Knutti and E. Hawkins, 2020: Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple Large Ensembles and CMIP5/6. Earth Sys. Dyn. Discuss., Special Issue on Large Ensembles, 11, 491–508, doi:10.5194/esd-11-491-2020.
[Article (online)] [Article] [Supplement]

Hirasawa, H., P. J. Kushner, M. Sigmond, J. Fyfe and C. Deser, 2020: Anthropogenic aerosols dominate forced multidecadal Sahel precipitation change through distinct atmospheric and oceanic drivers. J. Climate, 33, 10187-10204, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0829.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Deser, C., F. Lehner, K. B. Rodgers, T. Ault, T. L. Delworth, P. N. DiNezio, A. Fiore, C. Frankignoul, J. C. Fyfe, D. E. Horton, J. E. Kay, R. Knutti, N. S. Lovenduski, J. Marotzke, K. A. McKinnon, S. Minobe, J. Randerson, J. A. Screen, I. R. Simpson and M. Ting, 2020: Insights from earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects. Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 277-286, doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2. [SharedIt Link] [Publisher Correction]

England, M., L. Polvani, L. Sun and C. Deser, 2020: Tropical climate responses to projected Arctic and Antarctic sea ice loss. Nat. Geosci., 13, 275-281, doi:10.1038/s41561-020-0546-9. [Article]

Sherman, P., E. Tziperman, C. Deser and M. McElroy, 2020: Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland Ice Sheet melt. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086913, doi:10.1029/2019GL086913. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Danabasoglu, G., J. -F. Lamarque, J. Bacmeister, D. A. Bailey, A. K. DuVivier, J. Edwards, L. K. Emmons, J. Fasullo, R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, C. Hannay, M. M. Holland, W. G. Large, D. M. Lawrence, J. T. M. Lenaerts, K. Lindsay, W. H. Lipscomb, M. J. Mills, R. Neale, K. W. Oleson, B. Otto-Bliesner, A. S. Phillips, W. Sacks, S. Tilmes, L. van Kampenhout, M. Vertenstein, A. Bertini, J. Dennis, C. Deser, C. Fischer, B. Fox-Kemper, J. E. Kay, D. Kinnison, P. J. Kushner, M. C. Long, S. Mickelson, J. K. Moore, E. Nienhouse, L. Polvani, P. J. Rasch and W. G. Strand, 2020: The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, doi:10.1029/2019MS001916. [Article]

Sun, L., C. Deser, R. Tomas and M. Alexander, 2020: Global coupled climate response to polar sea ice loss: Evaluating the effectiveness of different ice-constraining approaches. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085788, doi:10.1029/2019GL085788. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

2019

Merrifield, A. L., I. R. Simpson, K. A. McKinnon, S. Sippel, S. -P. Xie and C. Deser, 2019: Local and non-local land surface influence in European heatwave initial condition ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14082-14092, doi:10.1029/2019GL083945
[Article] [Supporting Information]

Kang, S.M., M. Hawcroft, B. Xiang, Y. Hwang, G. Cazes, F. Codron, T. Crueger, C. Deser, Ø. Hodnebrog, H. Kim, J. Kim, Y. Kosaka, T. Losada, C.R. Mechoso, G. Myhre, Ø. Seland, B. Stevens, M. Watanabe, and S. Yu, 2019: Extratropical–Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (Etin-Mip): Protocol and Initial Results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 2589–2606, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0301.1. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

Pendergrass, A. G., D. Coleman, C. Deser, F. Lehner, N. Rosenbloom and I. R. Simpson, 2019: Nonlinear response of extreme precipitation to warming in CESM1 Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10551-10560, doi:10.1029/2019GL084826.
[Article] [Supporting Information]

Simpson, I. R., S. G. Yeager, K. A. McKinnon, and C. Deser 2019: Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean-jet stream connection. Nat. Geosci., 12, 613–619, doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0391-x.
[Article] [Supplemental Information]

Chemke, R., L. M. Polvani and C. Deser, 2019: The effect of Arctic sea-ice loss on the Hadley circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 963-972, doi:10.1029/2018GL081110. [Article]

Guo, R., C. Deser, L. Terray and F. Lehner, 2019: Human influence on winter precipitation trends (1921-2015) over North America and Eurasia revealed by dynamical adjustment. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, doi:10.1029/2018GL081316. [Article] [Supplemental Information]

Screen, J.A. and C. Deser, 2019: Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2222–2231, doi:10.1029/2018GL081393. [Article]

2018

Hurrell, J. W., C. Deser and A. S. Phillips, 2018: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences (3rd edition), doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.11621-5. [Article]

McKinnon, K. A and C. Deser, 2018: Internal variability and regional climate trends in an Observational Large Ensemble. J. Climate, 31, 6783–6802, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Lehner, F., C. Deser, I. R. Simpson and L Terray, 2018: Attributing the US Southwest’s recent shift into drier conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6251-6261, doi:10.1029/2018GL078312. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Simpson, I. R., C. Deser, K. A. McKinnon, and E. A. Barnes, 2018: Modelled and observed multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream and its connection to Sea Surface Temperatures. J. Climate, 31, 8313-8338, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0168.1. [Article]

Sun, L., M. A. Alexander and C. Deser, 2018: Evolution of the global coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss during 1990-2090 and its contribution to climate change. J. Climate, 31, 7823-7843, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0134.1. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Smith, D. M., J. Screen, C. Deser, J. Cohen, J. C. Fyfe, J. García-Serrano, T. Jung, V. Kattsov, D. Matei, R. Msadek, Y. Peings, M. Sigmond, J. Ukita, J. -H. Yoon and X. Zhang, 2018: The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 12, 1139–1164, doi:10.5194/gmd-2018-82. [Article]

Deser, C., I. R. Simpson, A. S. Phillips and K. A. McKinnon, 2018: How well do we know ENSO's climate impacts over North America, and how do we evaluate models accordingly? J. Climate, 30, 4991-5014, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0783.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Wang K., C. Deser, L. Sun and R. A. Tomas, 2018: Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4264–4272, doi:10.1029/2018GL077325. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser, D. M. Smith, X. Zhang, R. Blackport, P. J. Kushner, T. Oudar, K. E. McCusker and L. Sun, 2018: Consistency and causes of discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss across climate models. Nat. Geosci., 11, 155–163, doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0059-y. [Article] [Weather Underground Article]

2017

Deser, C., I. R. Simpson, K. A. McKinnon and A. S. Phillips, 2017: The Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: How well do we know it and how do we evaluate models accordingly? J. Climate, 30, 5059-5082, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1. [Article] [Corrigendum]

Pendergrass, A. G., R. Knutti, F. Lehner, C. Deser and B. M. Sanderson, 2017: Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. Sci. Rep., 7, 17966 (2017), doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

Okumura, Y. M., P. DiNezio and C. Deser, 2017: Evolving impacts of multi-year La Niña events on atmospheric circulation and US drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11,614–11,623, doi:10.1002/2017GL075034. [Article] [Supporting Information]

DiNezio, P., C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron and G. A. Meehl, 2017: A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Nina in 2017-18. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11624–11635, doi:10.1002/2017GL074904. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Schneider, D. P and C. Deser, 2017: Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: Reconciling observed and modeled trends. Clim. Dyn., 50, 4599-4618, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3893-5. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

McKinnon, K. A., A. Poppick, Dunn-Sigouin, E. and C. Deser, 2017: An ‘Observational Large Ensemble’ to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 90, 7585-7598, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0905.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Pendergrass, A. G. and C. Deser, 2017: Climatological Characteristics of Typical Daily Precipitation. J. Climate, 30, 5985–6003, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0684.1. [Article]

Merrifield, A., F. Lehner, S. -P. Xie and C. Deser, 2017: Removing Circulation Effects to Assess Central US Land-Atmosphere Interactions in the CESM Large Ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9938-9946, doi:10.1002/2017GL074831. [Article] [Supporting Information]

He, J., C. Deser, and B. J. Soden, 2017: Atmospheric and Oceanic Origins of Tropical Precipitation Variability. J. Climate, 30, 3197-3217, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0714.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C., J. W. Hurrell and A. S. Phillips, 2017: The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European Climate Projections. Clim. Dyn., 49, 3141–3157, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Hwang, Y. -T., S. -P. Xie, C. Deser and S. M. Kang, 2017: Connecting Tropical Climate Change with Southern Ocean Heat Uptake. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL074972. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Lehner, F., C. Deser and L. Terray, 2017: Towards a new estimate of “time of emergence” of anthropogenic warming: insights from dynamical adjustment and a large initial-condition model ensemble. J. Climate, 30, 7739-7756, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1
[Article] [Supplemental Material]

Deser, C., R. Guo and F. Lehner, 2017: The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7945–7954, doi:10.1002/2017GL074273. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C. and A. Phillips, 2017: An overview of decadal-scale sea surface temperature variability in the observational record. Joint Issue of CLIVAR Exchanges and PAGES Magazine, doi:10.22498/pages.25.1.2. [Article]

Thirumalai K., P. N. DiNezio, Y. Okumura and C. Deser, 2017: Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming. Nat. Comm., 8, 15531, doi:10.1038/ncomms15531. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

DiNezio, P. N., C. Deser, Y. Okumura and A. Karspeck, 2017: Predictability of 2-year La Ni ̃na events in a coupled general circulation model. Clim. Dyn., 49, 4237-4261, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3575-3. [Article]

Polvani, L. M., L. Sun, A. H. Butler, J. H. Richter and C. Deser, 2017: Distinguishing stratospheric sudden warmings from ENSO as key drivers of wintertime climate variability over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. J. Climate, 30, 1959-1969, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0277.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

2016

Newman, M., M. A. Alexander, T. R. Ault, K. M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N. J. Mantua, A. J. Miller, S. Minobe, H. Nakamura, N. Schneider, D. J. Vimont, A. S. Phillips, J. D. Scott, and C. A. Smith, 2016: The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisted. J. Climate, 29, 4399-4427, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1. [Article]

McGraw, M. C., E. A. Barnes and C. Deser, 2016: Reconciling the Observed and Modeled Southern Hemisphere Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7259–7266, doi:10.1002/2016GL069835. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Tomas, R. A, C. Deser and L. Sun, 2016: The role of ocean heat transport in the global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 29, 6841-6859, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0651.1. [Article]

Eyring, V., M. Righi, A. Lauer, M. Evaldsson, S. Wenzel, C. Jones, A. Anav, O. Andrews, I. Cionni, E. L. Davin, C. Deser, C. Ehbrecht, P. Friedlingstein, P. Gleckler, K.-D. Gottschaldt, S. Hagemann, M. Juckes, S. Kindermann, J. Krasting, D. Kunert, R. Levine, A. Loew, J. Mäkelä, G. Martin, E. Mason, A. S. Phillips, S. Read, C. Rio, R. Roehrig, D. Senftleben, A. Sterl, L. H. van Ulft, J. Walton, S. Wang and K. D. Williams, 2016: ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747-1802, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016. [Article] [Discussion]

Lehner, F., A. P. Schurer, G. C. Hegerl, C. Deser and T. L. Frölicher, 2016: The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL067935. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C., L. Terray and A. S. Phillips, 2016: Forced and internal components of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50 years: Mechanisms and implications. J. Climate, 29, 2237-2258, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0304.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C., L. Sun, R. A. Tomas and J. Screen, 2016: Does ocean-coupling matter for the northern extra-tropical response to projected Arctic sea ice loss? Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2149–2157, doi:10.1002/2016GL067792. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Lehner, F., C. Deser and B. M. Sanderson, 2016: Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation. Clim. Change, 146, 363–375, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Wang, C., C. Deser, J. -Y. Yu, P. DiNezio, and A. Clement, 2016: El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A Review. Coral Reefs of the Eastern Pacific, P. Glymn, D. Manzello and I. Enochs, Eds., Springer Science Publisher, 4, 85-106, doi:10.1007/978-94-017-7499-4_4. [Chapter]

Vihma, T., J. Screen, M. Tjernström, B. Newton, X. Zhang, V. Popova, C. Deser, M. Holland, and T. Prowse, 2016: The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: processes, past and future changes, and their impacts. J. Geophys. Res. -Biogeo., 121, 586-620, doi:10.1002/2015JG003132. [Article]

2015

Schneider, D. P., C. Deser and T. Fan, 2015: Comparing the impacts of tropical SST variability and polar stratospheric ozone loss on the Southern Ocean westerly winds. J. Climate, 28, 9350-9372, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0090.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Thompson, D. W. J., E. A. Barnes, C. Deser, W. E. Foust, and A. S. Phillips, 2015: Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends. J. Climate, 28, 6443-6456, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1. [Article]

Richter, J. H., C. Deser and L. Sun, 2015: Effects of stratospheric variability on El Nino Teleconnections. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 124021, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124021. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser and L. Sun, 2015: Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued sea ice loss. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 96, 1489–1503, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1 [Article]

Sun, L., C. Deser and R. A. Tomas, 2015: Mechanisms of stratospheric and tropospheric circulation response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 28, 7824-7845, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0169.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Xie, S -P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, M. Collins, T. L. Delworth, A. Hall, E. Hawkins, N. C. Johnson, C. Cassou, A. Giannini and M. Watanabe, 2015: Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 921–930, doi:10.1038/nclimate2689. [Article]

Kay, J. E., C. Deser, A. Phillips, A. Mai, C. Hannay, G. Strand, J. Arblaster, S. Bates, G. Danabasoglu, J. Edwards, M. Holland, P. Kushner, J. -F. Lamarque, D. Lawrence, K. Lindsay, A. Middleton, E. Munoz, R. Neale, K. Oleson, L. Polvani, and M. Vertenstein, 2015: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 96, 1333–1349, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1. [Article]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser and L. Sun, 2015: Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 084006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084006. [Article]

Deser, C., R. A. Tomas, and L. Sun, 2015: The role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the zonal-mean atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 28, 2168-2186, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00325.1. [Article]

Hurrell, J. W. and C. Deser, 2015: Northern hemisphere climate variability during winter: Looking back on the work of Felix Exner. Meteorol. Z., 24, 113-118, 10.1127/metz/2015/0578. [Article]

2014

Sun, L., C. Deser, L. Polvani, and R. Tomas, 2014: Influence of projected Arctic sea ice loss on polar stratospheric ozone and circulation in spring. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 084016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084016. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

DiNezio, P. N. and C. Deser, 2014: Nonlinear controls on the persistence of La Nina. J. Climate, 27, 7335-7355, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00033.1. [Article]

Phillips, A. S., C. Deser, and J. Fasullo, 2014: A new tool for evaluating modes of variability in climate models. EOS, 95, 453-455, doi:10.1002/2014EO490002. [Article]

D'Arrigo, R., R. Wilson, G. Wiles, K. Anchukaitis, O. Solomina, N. Davi, C. Deser and E. Dolgova, 2014: Tree-ring reconstructed temperature index for coastal northern Japan: Implications for western North Pacific variability. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 3713-3720, doi:10.1002/joc.4230. [Article]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser, I. Simmonds, and R. Tomas, 2014: Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979-2009: Separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability. Clim. Dyn., 43, 333-344., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1830-9. [Article]

Zhang, H., C. Deser, A. Clement, and R. Tomas, 2014: Equatorial signatures of the Pacific Meridional Modes: Dependence on mean climate state. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 568-574, doi:10.1002/2013GL058842. [Article]

Fan, T., C. Deser, and D. P. Schneider, 2014: Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2419-2426, doi:10.1002/2014GL059239. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, and B. V. Smoliak, 2014: Projecting North American Climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 27, 2271-2296, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Butler, A. H., L. M. Polvani, and C. Deser, 2014: Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 024014 (9pp), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024014. [Article]

Wettstein, J. J. and C. Deser, 2014: Internal variability in projections of twenty-first century Arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 27, 527-550, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1. [Article]

2013

Kang, S. M., C. Deser and L. M. Polvani, 2013: Uncertainty in climate change projections of the Hadley circulation: the role of internal variability. J. Climate, 26, 7541-7554, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00788.1. [Article]

Ault, T. R., J. E. Cole, J. T. Overpeck, G. T. Pederson, S. St. George, B. Otto-Bliesner, C. A. Woodhouse, and C. Deser, 2013: The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium. J. Climate, 26, 5863-5878, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00732.1. [Article]

Ault, T. R., C. Deser, M. Newman, and J. Emile-Geay, 2013: Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3450-3456, doi:10.1002/grl.50647. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Wallace, J.M., C.Deser, B.V. Smoliak, and A.S. Phillips, 2013: Attribution of climate change in the presence of internal variability, In Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond (Eds: C.P. Chang, M. Ghil, M. Latif, and J. M. Wallace). World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, 6, 1-29, doi:10.1142/9789814579933_0001. [Chapter]

Hu, A. and C. Deser, 2013: Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2768-2772, doi:10.1002/grl.50531. [Article]

Screen, J. A., I. Simmonds, C. Deser, and R. Tomas, 2013: The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, J. Climate, 26, 1230-1248, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1. [Article]

Goddard, L., A. Kumar, A. Solomon, D. Smith, G. Boer, P. Gonzalez, V. Kharin, W. Merryfield, C. Deser, S. Mason, B. Kirtman, R. Msadek, R. Sutton, E. Hawkins, T. Fricker, G. Hegerl, C. Ferro, D. Stephenson, G. Meehl, T. Stockdale, R. Burgman, A. Greene, Y. Kushnir, M. Newman, J. Carton, I. Fukumori, and T. Delworth, 2013: A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Clim. Dyn., 40, 245-272, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2. [Article]

Schneider, D. P, C. Deser, J. Fasullo, and K. E. Trenberth, 2013: Climate Data Guide spurs discovery and understanding. EOS, 94, 13, 121-122, doi:10.1002/2013EO130001. [Article]

2012

Stevenson, S., B. Fox-Kemper, M. Jochum, R. Neale, C. Deser, and G. Meehl, 2012: Will there be a significant change to El Nino in the 21st Century? J. Climate, 25, 2129-2145, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00252.1. [Article]

Schneider, D. P., Y. Okumura, and C. Deser, 2012: Observed Antarctic interannual climate variability and tropical linkages. J. Climate, 25, 4048-4066, 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00273.1. [Article]

Deser, C., R. Knutti, S. Solomon, and A. S. Phillips, 2012: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 775-779, doi:10.1038/nclimate1562. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Tokinaga, H., S -P. Xie, C. Deser, Y. Kosaka, and Y. M. Okumura, 2012: Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming. Nature, 491, 439-443, doi:10.1038/nature11576. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Scherllin-Pirscher, B., C. Deser, S. -P. Ho, C. Chou, W. Randel, and Y. -W. Kuo, 2012: The vertical and spatial structure of ENSO in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from GPS radio occultation measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20801, doi:10.1029/2012GL053071. [Article]

Ghatak, D., C. Deser, A. Frei, G. Gong, A. Phillips, D. Robinson, and J. Stroeve, 2012: Simulated Eurasian Snow Cover Response to Observed Arctic Sea Ice Loss, 1979-2009. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D23108, doi:10.1029/2012JD018047. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, R. A. Tomas, Y. Okumura, M. A. Alexander, A. Capotondi, J. D. Scott, Y. -O. Kwon, and M. Ohba, 2012: ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in Community Climate System Model Version 4. J. Climate, 25, 2622-2651, 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1 [Article]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser, and I. Simmonds, 2012: Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10709, doi:10.1029/2012GL051598. [Article]

Okumura, Y. M., D. Schneider, C. Deser, and R. Wilson, 2012: Decadal-interdecadal climate variability over Antarctica and linkages to the tropics: Analysis of ice core, instrumental, and tropical proxy data. J. Climate, 25, 7421-7441. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2012: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 527-546, DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x. (Published online Dec. 2010) [Article]

2011

Okumura, Y. M., M. Ohba, and C. Deser, 2011: A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric duration of El Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 24, 3822-3829, 10.1175/2011JCLI3999.1. [Article}

Polvani, L. M., M. Previdi, and C. Deser, 2011: Large cancellation, due to ozone recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04707, doi:10.1029/2011GL046712. [Article]

Schneider, D. P., C. Deser, and Y. Okumura, 2011: An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring. Climate Dyn., 38, 323–347, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0985-x. [Article]

Clement, A., P. DiNezio, and C. Deser, 2011: Rethinking the Ocean's Role in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 24, 4056-4072, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3973.1. [Article]

Zhang, Y., D. J. Seidel, J. -C. Golaz, C. Deser, and R. A. Tomas, 2011: Climatological Characteristics of Arctic and Antarctic Surface-Based Inversions. J. Climate, 24, 5167-5186, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4004.1. [Article and Supplementary Material]

Medeiros, B., C. Deser, R. A. Tomas, and J. E. Kay, 2011: Arctic inversion strength in climate models. J. Climate, 24, 4733-4740, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3968.1. [Article]

Solomon, A., L. Goddard, A. Kumar, J. Carton, C. Deser, I. Fukumori, A. Greene, G. Hegerl, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Newman, D. Smith, D. Vimont, T. Delworth, J. Meehl, and T. Stockdale, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 92, 141-156, 10.1175/2010BAMS2962.1. [Article]

Ciasto, L. M., M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, and M. H. England, 2011: On the persistence of cold season SST anomalies associated with the Annular Modes. J. Climate, 24, 2500-2515, 10.1175/2010JCLI3535.1. [Article]

2010

Alexander, M. A., R. Tomas, C. Deser, and D. L. Lawrence, 2010: The Atmospheric Response to Projected Terrestrial Snow Changes in the Late 21st Century. J. Climate, 23, 6430-6437, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3899.1. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and M. A. Alexander, 2010: Twentieth Century Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Trends Revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043321. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Okumura, Y. M., C. Deser, 2010: Asymmetry in the Duration of El Nino and La Nina. J. Climate, 23, 5826-5843, 10.1175/2010JCLI3592.1. [Article]

Anderson, B. T., J. R. Knight, M. A. Ringer, C. Deser, A. S. Phillips, J. -H. Yoon, and A. Cherchi, 2010: Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models. Climate Dyn., 35, 1461-1475, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0798-y. [Article]

Kwon, Y.-O., C. Deser and C. Cassou, 2010: Coupled atmosphere-mixed layer ocean response to ocean heat flux convergence along the Kuroshio Current Extension. Climate Dyn., 36, 2295–2312, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0764-8. [Article] [Supplementary Figures]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, S. -P. Xie, and A. S. Phillips, 2010: Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2010.2, 115-143, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453. [Article]

Deser, C., R. Tomas, M. Alexander, and D. Lawrence, 2010: The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late 21st century. J. Climate, 23, 333-351, 10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1. [Article]

Xie, S. -P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23, 966-986, doi:101175/2009JCLI3329.1. [Article]

2009

Schubert, S., D. Gutzler, H. Wang, A. Dai, T. Delworth, C. Deser, K. Findell, R. Fu, W. Higgins, M. Hoerling, B. Kirtman, R. Koster, A. Kumar, D. Legler, D. Lettenmaier, B. Lyon, V. Magana, K. Mo, S. Nigam, P. Pegion, A. Phillips, R. Pulwarty, D. Rind, A. Ruiz-Barradas, J. Schemm, R. Seager, R. Stewart, M. Suarez, J. Syktus, M. Ting, C. Wang, S. Weaver, N. Zeng, 2009: A USCLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results.J. Climate, 22, 5251-5272, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1 [Article]

Okumura, Y. M., C. Deser, A. Hu, A. Timmermann, and S. -P. Xie, 2009: North Pacific climate response to freshwater forcing in the subarctic North Atlantic: Oceanic and atmospheric pathways. J. Climate, 22, 1424-1445. [Article]

Hurrell, J. W., and C. Deser, 2009: North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Mar. Syst., 78, No. 1, 28-41, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.026.
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Tsukernik, M., C. Deser, M. Alexander, and R. Tomas, 2009: Atmospheric forcing of Fram Strait sea ice export: A closer look. Climate Dyn., 35, 1349–1360, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0647-z. [Article]

Lu, J., C. Deser, and T. Reichler, 2009: Cause of the widening of the tropical belt since 1958. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03803, doi:10.1029/2008GL036076. [Article]

Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., J. Calbó, M. Brunetti, and C. Deser, 2009: Dimming/brightening over the Iberian Peninsula: Trends in sunshine duration and cloud cover and their relations with atmospheric circulation. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00D09, doi:10.1029/2008JD011394. [Article]

Zhou, T., R. Yu, J. Zhang, J. Li, X. Xin, H. Drange, C. Cassou, E. Sanchez-Gomez, C. Deser, Y. M. Okumura, D. L. Hodson, N. Keenlyside, 2009: Why the western Pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s. J. Climate, 22, 2199-2215, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2527.1. [Article]

Deser, C., and A.S. Phillips, 2009: Atmospheric Circulation Trends, 1950-2000: The Relative Roles of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing and Direct Atmospheric Radiative Forcing. J. Climate, 22, 396-413, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2453.1. [Article]

2008

Bhatt, U. S., M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, J. E. Walsh, J. S. Miller, M. Timlin, J. D. Scott, and R. Tomas, 2008: The atmospheric response to realistic reduced summer Arctic sea ice anomalies. Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 180, E. T. DeWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and L. -B. Tremblay, Eds., AGU, 91-110. [Article]

Lawrence, D. M., A. G. Slater, R. A. Tomas, M. M. Holland, and C. Deser, 2008: Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L11506, doi:10.1029/2008GL033985. [Article]

Deser, C., and H. Teng, 2008: Recent trends in Arctic sea ice and the evolving role of atmospheric circulation forcing, 1979-2007. Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 180, E. T. DeWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and L. -B. Tremblay, Eds., AGU, 7-26. [Article]

Ueyama, R., and C. Deser, 2008: A climatology of diurnal and semidiurnal surface wind variations over the Tropical Pacific Ocean based on the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean moored buoy array. J. Climate, 21, 593-607, doi:10.1175/JCLI1666.1. [Article]

Alexander, M., A. Capotondi, A. Miller, F. Chai, R. Brodeur, and C. Deser, 2008: Decadal variability in the Northeast Pacific in a physical-ecosystem model: Role of mixed layer depth and trophic interactions. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C02017, doi:10.1029/2007JC004359. [Article]

Zeng, Z, W. Randel, S. Sokolovskiy, C. Deser, Y. -H. Kuo, M. Hagan, J. Du, and W. Ward, 2008: Detection of migrating diurnal tide in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using the Challenging Minisatellite Payload radio occultation data. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D03102, doi:10.1029/2007JD008725. [Article]

Deser, C., and H. Teng, 2008: Evolution of Arctic sea ice concentration trends and the role of atmospheric circulation forcing, 1979-2007. Geophys. Res. Lett, 35, L02504, doi:10.1029/2007GL032023. [Article] [Supplemetary Material]

2007

Deser, C., R. A. Tomas, and S. Peng, 2007: The transient atmospheric circulation response to North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies. J. Climate, 20, 4751-4767. [Article]

Cassou, C., C. Deser, and M. A. Alexander, 2007: Investigating the impact of reemerging sea surface temperature anomalies on the winter atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 20, 3510-3526. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Kwon, Y. -O., and C. Deser, 2007: North Pacific decadal variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 2. J. Climate, 20, 2416-2433. [Article]

Jochum, M., C. Deser, and A. Phillips, 2007: Tropical atmospheric variability forced by oceanic internal variability.J. Climate, 20, 765-771. [Article]

2006

Park, S., M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, 2006: The impact of cloud radiative feedback, remote ENSO forcing, and entrainment on the persistence of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 19, 6243-6261. [Article]

Deser, C., and A. S. Phillips, 2006: Simulation of the 1976/1977 climate transition over the North Pacific: Sensitivity to tropical forcing. J. Climate, 19, 6170-6180. [Article]

Deser, C., A. Capotondi, R. Saravanan, and A. S. Phillips, 2006: Tropical Pacific and Atlantic climate variability in CCSM3. J. Climate, 19, 2451-2481. [Article] [Supplementary Figures]

2005

D'Arrigo, R., R. Wilson, C. Deser, G. Wiles, E. Cook, R. Villalba, A. Tudhope, J. Cole, and B. Linsley, 2005: Tropical-North Pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries. J. Climate, 18, 5253-5265. [Article]

Park, S., C. Deser, and M. A. Alexander, 2005: Estimation of the surface heat flux response to sea surface temperature anomalies over the global oceans. J. Climate, 18, 4582-4599. [Article]

Capotondi, A., M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, and M. J. McPhaden, 2005: Anatomy and decadal evolution of the Pacific Subtropical-Tropical Cells (STCs). J. Climate, 18, 3739-3758. [Article]

Capotondi, A., M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, and A. J. Miller, 2005: Low-frequency pycnocline variability in the Northeast Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 35, 1403-1420. [Article]

2004

Cassou, C., C. Deser, L. Terray, J. W. Hurrell, and M. Dr�villon, 2004: Summer sea surface temperature conditions in the North Atlantic and their impact upon the atmospheric circulation in early winter. J. Climate, 17, 3349-3363. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17, 3109-3124. [Article] [Supplementary Figures] [Tropical Index ascii file]

Magnusdottir, G., C. Deser, and R. Saravanan, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea-ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3, Part I: Main features and storm-track characteristics of the response. J. Climate, 17, 857-876. [Article]

Deser, C., G. Magnusdottir, R. Saravanan, and A. Phillips, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea-ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3, Part II: Direct and indirect components of the response. J. Climate, 17, 877-889. [Article]

Cassou, C., L. Terray, J. W. Hurrell, and C. Deser, 2004: North Atlantic winter climate regimes: Spatial asymmetry, stationarity with time, and oceanic forcing. J. Climate, 17, 1055-1068. [Article]

2003

Capotondi, A., M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, 2003: Why are there Rossby Wave maxima in the Pacific at 10�S and 13�N? J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 1549-1563. [Article]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 2003: Understanding the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies in midlatitudes. J. Climate, 16, 57-72. [Article]

2002

Hu, A., C. Rooth, R. Bleck, and C. Deser, 2002: NAO influence on sea ice extent in the Eurasian coastal region. Geophys. Res. Lett.: 29, No. 2053-2056. [Article]

Timlin, M. S., M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, 2002: On the reemergence of North Atlantic SST anomalies. J. Climate, 15, 2707-2712. [Article]

Lysne, J., and C. Deser, 2002: Wind-driven thermocline variability in the Pacific: A model/data comparison. J. Climate, 15, 829-845. [Article]

Deser, C., M. Holand, G. Reverdin, and M. S. Timlin, 2002: Decadal variations in Labrador sea ice cover and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. J. of Geophys. Res., 107, C5, doi:10.1029/2000JC000683. [Article (.4MB)]

2001

Lietzke, C. E., C. Deser, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2001: Evolutionary structure of the Eastern Pacific double ITCZ based on satellite moisture profile retrievals.J. Climate, 14, 743-751. [Article]

2000

Joyce, T. M., C. Deser, and M. A. Spall, 2000: The relation between decadal variability of subtropical mode water in the North Atlantic and large-scale patterns of air-sea forcing. J. Climate, 13, 2550-2569. [Article]

Deser, C., 2000: On the teleconnectivity of the "Arctic Oscillation". Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 779-782. [Article]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 2000: Reply to Drs. Latif and Ventzke comments on "Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current Extension from the 1970s to the 1980s". J. Climate, 13, 1995-1995. [Article]

Deser, C., M. Alexander, and M. Timlin, 2000: Re-emergence of winter SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), 2000 U.S. WOCE Report, 12, 32-35.

Alexander, M. A., J. D. Scott, and C. Deser, 2000: Processes that influence sea surface temperature and ocean mixed layer depth variability in a coupled model. J. Geophys. Res, 105, C7, 16823-16842. [Article]

Deser, C., J. E. Walsh, M. S. Timlin, 2000: Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends. J. Climate, 13, 617-633. [Article]

1999

Alexander, M. A., C. Deser, M. S. Timlin, 1999: The reemergence of SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 12, 2419-2433. [Article]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, M. S. Timlin, 1999: Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current Extension from the 1970s to the 1980s. J. Climate, 12, 1697-1706. [Article]

Schneider, N., A. J. Miller, M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser 1999: Subduction of decadal North Pacific temperature anomalies: Observations and dynamics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 1056-1070. [Article]

Schneider, N., S. Venzke, A. J. Miller, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, C. Deser, and M. Latif, 1999: Pacific thermocline bridge revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1329-1332.. [Article]

Dai, A., and C. Deser, 1999: Diurnal and semidiurnal variations in global surface wind and divergence fields. J. Geophys. Res., 104, D24, 31109-31125. [Article]

1998

Deser, C. and C. Smith, 1998: Diurnal and semidiurnal variations of the surface wind field over the Tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 11, 1730-1748. [Article]

Deser, C., and M. Timlin, 1998: Atmosphere-ocean interaction on weekly timescales in the North Atlantic and Pacific. J. Climate, 10, 393-408. [Article]

1996

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 1996: Upper-Ocean Thermal Variations in the North Pacific during 1970-1991. J. Climate, 9, 1840-1855. [Article]

1995

Deser, C., and M. L. Blackmon, 1995: Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-89. National Academy of Sciences Symposium on Natural Variability of the Climate System on 10-100 Year Time Scales. National Academy Press.

Deser, C. and M. L. Blackmon, 1995: On the relationship between Tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature variations. J. Climate, 8, 1677-1680. [Article]

Alexander, M. A., C. Deser, 1995: A mechanism for the recurrence of wintertime midlatitude SST anomalies. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 122-137. [Article]

1994

Deser, C., 1994: Daily surface wind variations over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 99, D11, 23071-23078. [Article]

1993

Deser, C., and M. L. Blackmon, 1993: Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-89. J. Climate, 6, 1743-1753. [Article]

Deser, C., S. Wahl, and J. J. Bates, 1993: The influence of sea surface temperature gradients on stratiform cloudiness along the equatorial front in the Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 6, 1172-1180. [Article]

Deser, C., 1993: Diagnosis of the surface momentum balance over the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 6, 64-74. [Article]

1990

Deser, C., and J. M. Wallace 1990: Large-scale atmospheric circulation features of warm and cold episodes in the Tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 3, 1254-1281. [Article]

1989

Wallace, J. M., T. P. Mitchell, and C. Deser 1989: The influence of sea-surface temperature on surface wind in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific: Seasonal and interannual variability. J. Climate, 2, 1492-1499. [Article]

Richey, J. E., C. Nobre, and C. Deser 1989: Amazon River discharge and climate variability: 1903-1985. Science, 246, (Oct. 1989), 101-103. [Article]

1988

Wright, P. B., J. M. Wallace, T. P. Mitchell, and C. Deser 1988: Correlation structure of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. J. Climate, 1, 609-625. [Article]

1987

Deser, C., and J. M. Wallace 1987: El Nino events and their relationship to the Southern Oscillation: 1925-1986. J. of Geophys. Res., 92, C13, 14189-14196. [Article]